Hiren Pandit: Global climate change and Bangladesh’s achievement of sustainable development goals is an important issue. Although the threat of climate change is global, Bangladesh ranks seventh and fifth in the list of climate-vulnerable and affected countries, respectively, which is very worrying for the delta region of Bangladesh. The year 2023 was the hottest year on earth. The year broke all previous records for warmth. It was confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year ever on this planet by proving the prediction of scientists to be true. Scientists have warned and said that humans create this condition of the world. The reason behind the warming of this planet is the extensive use of fossil fuels. So, there will be no more waste of time; we will have to walk on the path of fast renewable energy. If not, scientists fear that the current situation will deteriorate further.
As a result, nearly one crore families living in more than 710 square kilometers of coastal areas along the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh are already at risk of flooding, cyclones, and landslides, and their access and inclusion to state infrastructure and services are in dire straits. Of these, the poorest households in 69 percent of Bangladesh’s coastal upazilas are currently at serious risk, putting Bangladesh’s achievement of SDG targets 3, 4, 7, 8, and 13 in serious question. However, Bangladeshi and international policymakers should prioritize pro-poor development in decision-making. According to the study, although poor and vulnerable people and communities have no role to play in the dangerous climate changes, the impact of climate change has put the lives of this class of people in the face of the most significant existential crisis. Due to the effects of climate change, poor families across the entire coastal region are deprived of the opportunity to participate in basic needs services, including food, shelter, education, and health, at a higher rate than the prosperous and socio-economically advanced groups.
The poor are currently 1.07 times and 1.13 times more deprived of educational opportunities in the region than the middle or affluent groups, respectively, which is steadily increasing. According to Bangladesh Agricultural Information Service, rice production in the country is decreasing daily due to rising temperatures. A temperature of 18-35 degrees Celsius is required for rice cultivation. The temperature drops below 18 degrees during winter and rises above 35 degrees during summer. This causes many problems in the fertilization of rice and disrupts production. Rising temperatures are causing sea levels to rise due to the melting of polar ice caps. Agricultural soil salinity is increasing in coastal areas. Due to the severity of salinity, arable land is becoming uncultivated; yield is continuously decreasing. Due to this, the coastal region’s economic loss is increasing daily. According to a Soil Resources Research Institute (SRDI) study, coastal districts are deprived of more than 3 million tons of food grains yearly due to salinity alone.
If agricultural land salinity increases, agricultural income will decrease by 21 percent annually, and more than half of agricultural land in coastal areas will become unproductive. As a result, a large number of residents will be displaced. In addition to the prominent food grain, rice, the production of other crops such as jute, wheat, maize, peas, and chickpeas in Bangladesh is gradually decreasing. The main reasons are hail, storms, flash floods, drought, etc. As a result, the per capita income of the coastal people is decreasing, creating shortages in health-education-nutrition. Climate change is affecting agriculture and all sectors of Bangladesh’s economy, which are in crisis. For example, about 1 lakh 47 thousand hectares of ponds, 5 thousand 488 hectares of fishponds, and 11 million hectares of shrimp are cultivated in the country. Also, 44 lakh 70 thousand hectares of open water bodies, such as rivers, haors, beels, and canals, are home to about 250 fish species.
This fish production is also under threat due to increased temperatures and various climate changes. According to experts, when the temperature is over 30 degrees Celsius, the water gets heated, and oxygen deficiency occurs. It dramatically reduces the production of fish fry. Due to this, the fisheries sector’s income is decreasing, affecting the fishermen, whose livelihood mainly depends on fishing. Apart from this, due to the frequent occurrence of natural disasters due to climate change, people have lost everything and become helpless. The government has to spend a lot of money to rehabilitate them. As a result, the budget deficit is increasing, and many essential development programs are being hampered. Besides, many people are leaving their local areas to migrate to big cities, especially Dhaka, searching for work. They are forced to get involved in unplanned developing industries and labor systems.
According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), Bangladesh’s manufacturing sector currently loses 2.59 percent of working hours due to heat stress, which will increase to 4.96 percent in 2030 due to climate change. If garment factories rely more on-air conditioning for temperature control in the future, it will increase greenhouse gas emissions in Bangladesh, which is again subject to international restrictions. However, Bangladesh’s electricity sector is almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels. On the other hand, doctors say that during the summer months, the productivity of people in Bangladesh gradually decreases due to headaches, dizziness, fatigue, and nausea in the middle of the day. As a result, relatively high absenteeism rates are observed in office-courts and workplaces during summer.
According to the study, currently, only tropical cyclones cause annual economic losses of about 1 billion dollars in Bangladesh. One-third of Bangladesh’s agricultural GDP will be lost by 2050 if increasing losses continue, and severe floods will reduce GDP by up to 9 percent. At the same time, one crore and 3 million people of Bangladesh will be displaced and expelled from their land. According to data from the European Union (EU) Climate Service, the global average temperature rose by 1.48 degrees Celsius last year, compared to the long-term average warming since the widespread use of fossil fuels. The global temperature record has been set every day since July last year. However, achieving the goal of preventing global warming has reached the brink of failure.
To prevent global warming, greenhouse gas emissions and the use of fossil fuels must be tightly controlled. But last year was the world’s hottest year since the job was not done. This is a fundamental cause of concern for the people of the world. A report by Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCHRS), a European-based climate monitoring organization, said these things. It also says that October 2023 was much warmer than the average pre-industrial October. Its temperature was 1.7 degrees Celsius. According to Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Service, six months and two seasons in 2023 set new records for warmth. So, 2023 is the hottest year on record. Given this situation, the demand for phasing out the use of fossil fuels by limiting the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius is strengthened.
Since Bangladesh has little to do with changing the policies and situations of other countries, it should reduce the use of fossil fuels and reduce the level of other pollution by its initiative. Bangladesh should try to overcome the negative impact of climate change on its initiative. For this, along with the government, people of all levels and professions must take vital initiatives from their respective positions. Leaving everything to the government and fate will not suit our future generations. Individuals eating more vegetables, fruits, grains, legumes, nuts, and seeds and less meat and dairy can significantly reduce environmental impact. Plant-based food production produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions and requires less energy, land, and water. Flying in colossal fossil fuel-burning aircraft can be avoided even if meetings and seminars can be held abroad through video conferencing. Thousands of such tiny individual efforts can sustain human civilization.
But in reality, the world is now divided over the future of fossil fuels. On the one hand, the commercial interests of oil-producing countries and, on the other, the Alliance of Small Islands (AOSIS), a coalition of small island states, struggle to survive climate risks. The signs were clear towards the end of the COP-28 conference. The gap that hangs over the clock has become huge. The multifaceted pressure was correct, but the issue remained unresolved at the end of the UN climate conference. Because some countries have openly wanted to prioritize reducing pollution rather than eliminating fossil fuels in the COP-28 negotiations. Saudi Arabia and Russia were more active in this regard. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also sent letters to member countries and OPEC Plus countries just weeks before the OPEC summit.
It said any reference to fossil fuels in the COP-28 conference agreement should be rejected. In this situation, it was naturally assumed that the OPEC member countries started fighting over the fact that there was no consensus on the use of fossil fuels. OPEC created the fog and made the appearance of their dual role clear in front of everyone’s eyes. They went back and forth about reducing pollution but did not even say a word about fossil fuels like fuel oil and gas causing more pollution. Such a letter from OPEC is unprecedented. Through this, the organization, for the first time, tried to influence the negotiations of the United Nations Climate Conference.
OPEC members Saudi Arabia and OPEC Plus members Russia influences the oil market control and pricing. The whole world knows it. Another incident during the COP-28 conference sparked controversy. “There is no scientific basis for the claim of phasing out the use of fossil fuels,” sharp criticism began after the comment. Finally, they have been forced to back down and say, ‘He has respect for climate science.’ Despite living in such an adverse situation, the member countries (198 countries) of the 28 member countries (198 countries) of this first climate conference of the last 28 years agreed that they would gradually withdraw from using fossil fuels. After the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the Dubai Climate Agreement was finally successful.
Hiren Pandit is an essayist
and a researcher.